Source: Central Statistics Office Creator: Information Unit, Department of Health
Projected national population figures by single year of age (and total all ages) and by sex (males, females, and total) for each year from 2006 to 2041 inclusive. The data in this table are derived from the Population and Labour Force Projections: 2011-2041 published by the Central Statistics Office in April 2008.
Note: caution should be exercised in using these projections as they are based on census 2006. Since then, the economic downturn has caused net outward migration, for which no population projection scenario exists.
The following data is provided for each year:
Combination of migration and fertility assumptions - see below for further explanation
Data is provided for Male,Female and Total.
Data for single years from 0 (i.e. numbers of births projected for a given year), to 99+ and total for all ages.
Data for 2006 correspond with the results of the 2006 Census of Population; all data for subsequent years are derived from the projection model (see below). Please note that this means that projections for 2007 to 2009 will not agree with the population figures provided in PHIS Table D1. For these years, Table 1 is based on annual population estimates prepared by the CSO.
Population projections are produced by applying a mathematical model to a number of assumptions about the factors that affect the population. The principal factors used in the calculations are fertility, mortality and migration. The table below gives a summary of assumptions that could be applied to estimate population projections. These assumptions have been obtained from Population and Labour Force Projections 2011-2041.
F1 Total Fertility Rate to remain at its 2006 level of 1.9 for the lifetime of the projections
F2 Total Fertility Rate to decrease to 1.65 by 2016 and to remain constant thereafter.
Mortality rates are assumed to decrease which will result in gains in life expectancy at birth from:
· 76.7 years in 2005 to 86.5 years in 2041 for males
· 81.5 years in 2005 to 88.2 years in 2041 for females
M1 Immigration continuing at a high level and then moderating
· +60,000 per annum in 2006/2011
· +50,000 per annum in 2011/2016
· +40,000 per annum in 2016/2021
· +30,000 per annum in 2021/2026
· +30,000 per annum in 2026/2031
· +30,000 per annum in 2031/2036
· +30,000 per annum in 2036/2041
M2 Immigration continuing at more moderate levels
· +50,000 per annum in 2006/2011
· +35,000 per annum in 2011/2016
· +25,000 per annum in 2016/2021
· +10,000 per annum in 2021/2026
· +10,000 per annum in 2026/2031
· +10,000 per annum in 2031/2036
· +10,000 per annum in 2036/2041
Using this data:
Interpret these data cautiously. As a general rule, this website does not include confidence limits in its charts and maps. It aims to provide visual tools that allow you to explore an underling table or dataset. If you find something that you think is important, we strongly urge you to explore it more rigorously – consulting an experienced data analyst if appropriate – before taking any action based on that finding.
1. Statistical precision
Indicator values are prone to statistical error (the difference between an estimated value and the true value). The statistical error associated with an indicator depends on the population subgroup (e.g. the population of a county or LGD) that it refers to. Such differences in levels of statistical error can distort what we see in maps and charts. They can make some relationships involving indicators and attributes appear “real” (practically meaningful or statistically significant) when they are in fact spurious; other relationships that are “real” can be masked. These differences in statistical error can even distort the shape of plots or the colour patterns we see in maps.
Many indicator values estimates are derived from sample surveys, and different sample sizes from different population subgroups will lead to different levels of precision in the indicator values for these subgroups.
Different population subgroups have different population sizes which means that rate estimates for these subgroups will also have different confidence limits.
The true value of a percentage or a rate can influence the level of statistical error of any estimate.
2. Scales and legends
The scales used on chart axes and in can also distort our perceptions:
The range of values allowed on chart axes can accentuate relationships making them appear more “real” than they actually are.
The radial arms of spider plots of scaled data show the position of the value (in a population subgroup) relative to the minimum and maximum values of that indicator. Because these minimum and maximum depend on the indicator, relative positions of different population subgroups on different radial arms are not directly comparable.
The cut-off values used to determine the colours to shade areas of a map are default selections and do not necessarily represent meaningful values of the indicator. Areas with very similar data values can be shown with different shades. You should always note the actual values.